The Roadmap Into Year End

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As we enter the holiday season into year end there will be less data to move markets and seasonality historically plays a significant role. Next week the NYSE and NASDAQ are closed for Thanksgiving on Thursday November 24 and there is a half day on Friday November 25.

There isn’t much on the calendar until the November CPI Report on Tuesday December 13 at 8:30am EST. As long as it’s below 8% I expect the Fed to raise 50 basis points the following day while jawboning the markets about how it’s not a pivot. If all goes as expected I don’t foresee a big market reaction.

Historically markets have experienced a Santa Claus Rally at the end of the year. While I don’t see a lot of upside from current levels my bias for the rest of the year is an upward drift. If I had to guess I’d say the NASDAQ closes 2022 at around 11,500.

The NYSE and NASDAQ close again for Christmas on Monday December 26 and Tuesday December 27 is a half day.

At the end of 2021 I correctly forecast that inflation would define markets in 2022. In 2023 I expect it to be recession. Use the calmer trading conditions during the last six weeks of the year to position your portfolio appropriately.

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