NOTE: Every week or two I write a Client Note for my clients. For a limited time, I am allowing non-clients to sign up and receive it at the same time as my clients. You can sign up at the top right hand corner of the website. I will also be posting the notes on my blog with a time delay from time to time.
Originally sent to clients July 28.
*****
The market is crazier than a rat in a coffee can.
– Jeff Macke
In the month since my last Client Note, the market appears to have lost its mind. The news flow is the same – European sovereign debt crisis, US debt ceiling and earnings – but the reaction lurches to opposite extremes on a day to day basis. Since the beginning of May, the Dow has had 19 100-point days out of 62 total – 10 down and 9 up.
Reaction to 2nd quarter earnings has been similarly bipolar. Some stocks have surged post-earnings while others have been hammered. The market loved earnings from Google, Apple and Amazon, pushing shares up an average of 8.00% in the days since. But it hated earnings from Caterpillar, UPS and 3M, punishing shares an average of 8.41% since their reports.
To orient ourselves amid all this volatility, note that the S&P is right in the middle of its 2011 trading range. Technically, a sustained break above 1370 would signal the next leg up in the bull market. A break below 1250, on the other hand, would signal the beginning of a bear market. Until one or the other happens, we’re stuck in the middle.
NOW IS THE TIME TO INVEST WITH TOP GUN: If you have been thinking about investing with Top Gun, now is a good time to give me a call or send me an e-mail.
In the wake of the Fed’s “hawkish pause” Wednesday, in which they paused their interest rate hiking campaign but said they may still hike one more time this year and increased their forecast for the Fed Funds rate at the…
Wow. What a turn around in just a few days. When I was writing my previous post after the close last Tuesday the market was starting to look up. We’d had a nice rally on Thursday and Friday (Jan 11…
Friday was an interesting day as the market rallied in the wake of the stronger than expected March Jobs Report. Technically, it was an inside day with all of the price action taking place within Thursday’s range. Therefore, Thursday’s range…
NOTE: This blog articulates a complex options strategy known as a Short Strangle. It is recommended only for sophisticated investors who understand the risks involved. Oracle (ORCL) – which reports earnings this afternoon – is a stock I have followed…
The catalyst for today’s rally is the rumor that the Obama Administration is in the process of putting together a bad bank proposal to buy up bad assets from financial institutions. The financials are crushing today with the XLF up…
The January CPI came in up .4% compared to last month while the core CPI was up .3% (January 2008 CPI Report) – each .1% above Wall Street expectations. Combined with oil’s surge to $100 yesterday, this has put inflation front…