All Eyes On J-Pow
The rally off the June lows is premised on the following argument: Inflation is peaking; therefore the Fed will slow the pace of its rate hikes; which will ease the pressure on risk assets. But the market had some doubts…
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Earnings/Growth: The Next Domino To Fall
The market is in a happy place right now. Last Wednesday’s cooler than expected July CPI Report cemented the belief in The Peak Inflation Narrative and The Fed Pivot. The idea is that inflation has peaked and therefore the Fed…
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The Easy Money Has Been Made
This morning’s cooler than expected July CPI Report has catalyzed a nice rally in stocks and created a “the coast is clear” mentality. The Peak Inflation Narrative appears to be confirmed and therefore the Fed is expected to slow its…
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Love And Money In The Time Of COVID
Growth stocks, crypto and hookups. YOLO. If only I was Dan Bilzerian. Online dating leader Match (MTCH) and online brokerage Robinhood (HOOD) reported 2Q22 earnings Tuesday after the close. MTCH is the owner of Tinder – the preferred hookup app…
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The Lows Of The Year Are In
You heard it here first: the lows of the year are in. The bear market is not over. That was simply chapter 1. We’re a long way from home. This is a tactical call for the next few months. While…
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The Case For Gold Now II
We’re hitting peak inflation and yet the dollar remains as strong as it is. That doesn’t point to a meaningful recovery for gold prices – Shannon Saccocia, Chief Investment Officer SVB Private (quoted in WSJ) It’s been a long, miserable…
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Commodity Stocks Will Rally If The Fed Stays In Line
It’s been an extremely volatile year for commodity stock bulls like myself. During the first quarter the stocks marched relentlessly higher along with inflation and commodity prices while the second quarter was the mirror image of the first as the…
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Will The Fed Please Shut Up
You don’t want to overdo the rate increases – Fed Governor Christopher Waller, quoted in Nick Timiraos, “Fed Leans Towards Another 75 Point Increase: Consensus Builds Against Larger Boost Despite Worry Over June Inflation Report” [SUBSCRIPTION REQUIRED], WSJ A1, Monday…
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Timiraos: Fed Wary Of Repeating 1970s Error
Were the Fed to ease because of growth fears before inflation has been vanquished, it would risk repeating its stop and go tightening of the 1970s, which economists now see as a costly policy error – Nick Timiraos, “Fed Wary…
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Recession Fears Seep Into Fed Expectations
On Wednesday afternoon the Fed Minutes for the June meeting were released and they were quite hawkish. For example, on the front page of today’s WSJ Nick Timiraos – The Fed Whisperer – wrote an article titled “Fed Takes Stricter…
