What Do You Say, Jay?
Fed Chair Jay Powell finds himself in a bit of a bind ahead of Wednesday’s Fed Decision and press conference. On the one hand, he faces a crashing stock market; on the other, raging inflation. The tone he strikes in…
Is This 1929?
From August 24, 1921 through September 3, 1929, the Dow Jones Industrial Average surged from 63.90 to 381.17 (+497%). From March 9, 2009 through November 19, 2021, the NASDAQ Composite surged from 1,268.64 to 16,057.44 (+1166%). In terms of the…
Bears Get To The Big 7 – And It May Not Be Over
Up until this point, we have experienced what I have termed a “stealth bear market”. That is, many of the important but not leading stocks have been beaten down. For example, as Willie Delwiche tweeted yesterday in the chart above,…
From Whatever It Takes To Retiring Transitory – The End of the Post-COVID Bubble
On Monday March 23, 2020 before the market opened – in the midst of the COVID panic – Chairman Powell essentially told financial markets that he would do whatever it took to support financial markets: The Federal Reserve will continue…
Stocks Reverse Higher On Fed
The expectation heading into Wednesday’s Fed Decision is that the Fed will double the pace of its taper to $30 billion/month. That much has probably been priced into markets after Tuesday’s session. Further, my guess is that Chairman Powell will…
Two Scoops Of Hawkishness With A Dovish Cherry On Top
The expectation heading into Wednesday’s Fed Decision is that the Fed will double the pace of its taper to $30 billion/month. That much has probably been priced into markets after Tuesday’s session. Further, my guess is that Chairman Powell will…
Positioning Ahead Of The Fed, AAPL $3 Trillion
My best guess is that nothing much will change with QQQ, IWM and ARKK through year end. I can’t rule out QQQ breaking out to the upside but IWM likely won’t resolve its range until next year and ARKK will…
The State Of The Market Heading Into The CPI
After a strong three day bounce, the market softened Thursday with the S&P -0.72%, the NASDAQ -1.71% and the Russell -2.27%. NYSE + NASDAQ Advancers to Decliners were 1,997 to 6,030 on relatively mild volume of 8.3 billion shares compared…
Market Bounces As Expected But It Won’t Last
I do expect bulls to make a stand next week – perhaps as early as Monday morning. While everything else is technically broken, the QQQ has not cracked yet. While QQQ did take out $390 last week, it found support…
Powell Turns Hawkish, QQQ $390
Coming into this week, Omicron and its effect on Fed policy was the crucial dynamic. NorthmanTrader nicely summarized it in the above tweet. On Tuesday, Powell threw bulls for a loop when he was far more hawkish than expected in…