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The Fed Is Done, Small Caps Eye Breakout, NVDA Earnings, Value In ZM

The Fed Is Done, Small Caps Eye Breakout, NVDA Earnings, Value In ZM

November 18, 2023 Reading Time: 4 minutes

The better than expected October CPI last Tuesday morning has ended the Fed’s rate hiking campaign. As you can see in the Fed Futures Probabilities charts above, the market is placing no chance of anything other than a pause at…

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WMT: Buy The Dip, IWM Rejected At 200 DMA

WMT: Buy The Dip, IWM Rejected At 200 DMA

November 16, 2023 Reading Time: 2 minutes

In my weekly preview, I wrote about my “Long WMT/Short HD” position and I continue to like that trade despite the action in the stocks post earnings. HD bounced after reporting earnings Tuesday mornings but only because the stock was…

Read More WMT: Buy The Dip, IWM Rejected At 200 DMAContinue

Fed On Hold, Small Caps Explode, On Target (TGT)

Fed On Hold, Small Caps Explode, On Target (TGT)

November 15, 2023 Reading Time: 3 minutes

On Tuesday morning, the October CPI came in below expectations (0.0% headline, 0.2% core) leading to an explosive move higher in stocks and bonds. The rationale is that with inflation now apparently under control, the Fed no longer has any…

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Stocks Fall Again On Omicron And Manchin

Stocks Fall Again On Omicron And Manchin

December 20, 2021 Reading Time: 2 minutes

Stocks fell again Monday on concerns about Omicron and Senator Manchin blocking the Build Back Better stimulus bill. The S&P was -1.14%, the NASDAQ -1.24% and the Russell -1.57%. NYSE + NASDAQ Advancers to Decliners were 1,933 to 6,121 on…

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Two Scoops Of Hawkishness With A Dovish Cherry On Top

Two Scoops Of Hawkishness With A Dovish Cherry On Top

December 15, 2021 Reading Time: 3 minutes

The expectation heading into Wednesday’s Fed Decision is that the Fed will double the pace of its taper to $30 billion/month. That much has probably been priced into markets after Tuesday’s session. Further, my guess is that Chairman Powell will…

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Positioning Ahead Of The Fed, AAPL $3 Trillion

Positioning Ahead Of The Fed, AAPL $3 Trillion

December 13, 2021 Reading Time: 4 minutes

My best guess is that nothing much will change with QQQ, IWM and ARKK through year end. I can’t rule out QQQ breaking out to the upside but IWM likely won’t resolve its range until next year and ARKK will…

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Next Year Everybody Will Be Saying The ‘I’ Word

Next Year Everybody Will Be Saying The ‘I’ Word

December 11, 2021 Reading Time: 3 minutes

Friday morning’s much anticipated November CPI Report came in essentially inline with expectations with headline inflation up 6.8% year over year and 0.8% month over month. This likely means the Fed will go ahead with its accelerated tapering plan next…

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The State Of The Market Heading Into The CPI

The State Of The Market Heading Into The CPI

December 10, 2021 Reading Time: 5 minutes

After a strong three day bounce, the market softened Thursday with the S&P -0.72%, the NASDAQ -1.71% and the Russell -2.27%. NYSE + NASDAQ Advancers to Decliners were 1,997 to 6,030 on relatively mild volume of 8.3 billion shares compared…

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Bulls Take Back Control Though My Bias Is Still Lower

December 8, 2021 Reading Time: 3 minutes

Bulls took back control of the stock market Tuesday with a massive relief rally that sent the S&P +2.07%, the NASDAQ +3.03% and the Russell +2.28%. This is more than a bounce at this point and the bulls have the…

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Market Bounces As Expected But It Won’t Last

Market Bounces As Expected But It Won’t Last

December 7, 2021 Reading Time: 4 minutes

I do expect bulls to make a stand next week – perhaps as early as Monday morning. While everything else is technically broken, the QQQ has not cracked yet. While QQQ did take out $390 last week, it found support…

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I dropped out of Philosophy graduate school to start Top Gun in 2006 to profit from the bursting of the housing bubble. The stock market peaked in 2007 and Top Gun beat the S&P by more than 50% in 2008... Learn More

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