Early Saturday morning – even before Iran fired missiles at Israel – I wrote that the bear market was on the cusp of being resumed. In fact, I literally guaranteed it at the end of the accompanying YouTube video I made at 5am PST. (Scroll to the end of the YouTube at the bottom of…
My biggest position is the Long Term Treasury ETF (TLT). After being early and getting slaughtered, TLT has rallied hard in the last two months. The reasons are tame CPI reports and the Fed Pivot. With the 10 year yield having dropped from 5% to under 4% and TLT rallying from the low $80s to…
The crowd is right during the trend but wrong at both ends – Humphrey Neill, The Art of Contrary Thinking Contrarian investing is widely misunderstood. Most of the time it pays to invest with the trend and the crowd. It’s only at inflection points, when trends come to an end and the crowd is caught…
[Powell] didn’t sound to me like he was itching to hike again. He sounds like he’s pretty comfortable where they are, sitting back, and watching things play out – Michael Feroli, Chief Economist JP Morgan (quoted in Nick Timiraos, “Fed Stands Pat But Keeps Hike In Play” [SUBSCRIPTION REQUIRED], WSJ A1). Yesterday the Fed did…
The market has now priced in a soft landing based on the idea that the Fed can get inflation under control without causing the economy to roll over into recession. As a result, investors have piled into QQQ and completely lost interest in TLT. Personally I’m of the opposite view: All the Fed’s tightening is…
There are basically two narratives you can have at the current moment. The consensus view is that now that inflation is under control, the bear market is over and stocks are on the verge of a new bull market. The dissenting view is that the Fed’s tightening is still working its way through the system…
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Note: To sign up to be alerted when the morning blog is posted to my website, enter your name and email in the box in the right hand corner titled “New Post Announcements”. That will add you to my AWeber list. Each email from AWeber has a link at the bottom to “Unsubscribe” making it…
The market was cruising along as usual Thursday before reversing hard to the downside starting around 2pm EST. At the time, it wasn’t clear if the catalyst was a speech by Fed President Neel Kashkari in which he said the Fed might not cut rates at all this year or some news out of the…
If you want to get better at trading – or anything else – you need to keep records and track your results. The way I do this is by having Excel spreadsheets with all of my positions, their quantity, current market price and cost basis. This shows which positions are working, which aren’t and the…